In a study conducted by Emerson College Polling and released on Tuesday, 55.1% of registered voters indicated they would support Former President Donald Trump in the 2024 GOP primary, giving him a lead of 30.3 points over Gov. Ron DeSantis (R-FL). The governor of Florida received 24.8% of the votes. Ladies and gentlemen, that huge!
In comparison, 3.6 percent of participants said they would support departing Rep. Liz Cheney (R-WY), the vice chair of the January 6th Select Committee, while 7.5 percent said they would favor former vice president Mike Pence. Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX) received support from 3.4% of survey respondents. The question asking poll participants who they would support in the GOP primary had a sample size of 614 respondents, despite the fact that the overall poll surveyed 1,380 registered voters.
A total of 1,380 registered voters were included in the sample used by Emerson College Polling between November 18 and 19. The poll’s margin of error is +/- 2.5 percentage points.
Spencer Kimball, the executive director of Emerson College Polling, notes that support for Trump and DeSantis varies by age and educational level: “The Republican primary voters have a significant education gap. In 2024, Trump will enjoy a 71% support from voters with a high school diploma or less, compared to 14% who will choose DeSantis. With a college degree, some college education, or an associate’s degree, the majority—53%—support Trump, while 28% back DeSantis. The most divided group of Republican supporters with a graduate degree, however, is: For the Republican nomination, 32% favor Trump, 29% support DeSantis, and 18% support Mike Pence.”
In the Republican primary, there is also an age gap, according to Kimball: “Younger Republicans under 50 break for Trump over DeSantis 67% to 14%; voters between 50 and 64 break for Trump 54% to 32%; while Republicans over 65 are more divided: 39% back Trump and 32% DeSantis.”
The poll also examined support among possible Democrats running for president in 2024, and it discovered that President Joe Biden remains the front-runner despite receiving a mere 38.7 percent of the vote. Vice President Kamala Harris received the second-highest rate of support, at 16.6%, from the 591 respondents asked regarding their preference for candidates in the likely 2024 Democratic primary field.
With 11.5 percent of the vote, Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) came in third, while 8.9 percent of respondents said they would choose Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg.
In a hypothetical general election rematch between Trump and Biden, 40.9 percent of respondents said they would support Trump, while 45.1 percent indicated they would support the Democrat. A further 8.5 percent of voters were unsure, while 5.6 percent declared they would vote for a different candidate. Similar results showed that Biden had a 42.5 percent to 38.8 percent lead against DeSantis, with 11.2 percent saying they would cast their ballot for someone else. 8.5% more people were unsure.